GAM Weather Consulting

GAM Weather

Your Pacific Northwest Weather Authority

December 12, 2018

I had a request yesterday for a dry forecast for today, so, there will be only a few widely scattered showers around today as high pressure moves across, but sorry, yet another warm front will push in more rain tonight.  It is expected that high surf will precede this system so the National Weather Service has issued a High Surf Advisory effective from 4pm today thru 10am tomorrow.  This a result of the 20-25’ seas building offshore.  So, if you are planning to spend time at the beach today or tomorrow, know that the water will be running further up the beaches, especially during high tide periods.  High tides today at 3:18pm then another at 5am and 4pm tomorrow.  Remember the golden rules, do not turn your back on the ocean, also, stay off rocks, jetties, and logs!  These run-ups/waves can be strong enough to sweep you out into the oceans and these waters are turbulent and cold.

Now, back to the forecast, another warm front will bring a light rain chance starting later this evening with rain likely by late tonight into tomorrow morning.  The main axis of heavier rain will remain to the north into northwestern Washington though it may drift south and affect southwest Washington and extreme northwest Oregon.  After this, things become a little sketchy.  Some of the models move the associated cold front and low pressure area in quicker than others, and the strength also varies.  What this means is, there is a chance of high winds and the heavy rain could reach the area as early as Friday morning, or, a slower, weaker system may reach the coast later Friday afternoon.  Also, some of the models push the heavier rain southward towards southern Oregon/northern California.  Bottom line, there is a chance of high winds and heavy rain with this system, but don’t be disappointed if it isn’t that bad!

Look for scattered showers behind the front Friday night into Saturday morning then things dry up again during the day but with the active pattern continuing, and seeing off and on atmospheric river type events, Sunday on into next week looks wet also.  The long range models show a stronger system around Tuesday with heavy rain and high wind potential so we will continue to monitor this forecast.

Tillamook Area Forecast