GAM Weather Consulting

January 22, 2020

 Yes, Manzanita has now had a second tornado, the last one an EF2 in October 2016.  The one that happened about 11:12am yesterday was an EF0 with winds estimated at 65-70mph.  This one damaged at least 3 homes and downed or snapped 3 or 4 trees.  Fortunately, there was only minor damage and no one was injured.  The National Weather Service Portland reports that this is only the 5th known tornado in NW Oregon and SW Washington since 1876.  The most active tornado month is October with 25 (and one was in Manzanita), the least active is August with 3.

Now, today we just get some clouds and rain associated with a warm front moving northeastward through the area and it looks like we can expect the rain to continue behind the front tonight as well.  We can also expect the breezy conditions to continue with the southerly winds 14-18 gusting to 25-30.

Tomorrow the associated cold front brings in rain that could be heavy at times through tomorrow night.  We can expect the usual scattered showers behind the front late Thursday night into Friday.

Friday night another front moves in bringing a return of the rain into Saturday when we again have to watch things as some of the models have this front stalling out over the area Saturday night into Sunday.  For now though, it appears to stall to our south but these sometimes have a tendency to drift northward which would then affect our area.

For now anyway, it appears the hose, or area of greatest rainfall will be to the north into Washington over the next couple of days.  This is reflected in the area rivers that, for now, all appear to remain below Action Stage though some do get within a couple of feet.  As always under these scenarios, we should keep a close eye on future forecasts and actual happenings as this can, and frequently do, change.  


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